iRobot’s Earnings Disappointment Doesn’t Change Long-Term Story
Heading into the Q4 print we were confident iRobot would report better-than-expected revenues and guide 2018 sales above street expectations (see note here), which they did, but we incorrectly judged the magnitude lower EPS could have on the stock. Shares of iRobot finished down 30% due to investors concerns with decelerating revenue growth and lower-than-expected profitability. That said, with the revenue outlook being inline with our expectations and the lower earnings forecast being largely attributed to increased marketing and R&D spend (and not price erosion), we remain believers in the long-term iRobot story. Following iRobot’s results our two key takeaways are 1) the domestic robot market is and will remain one of the fastest growing robotic markets over the next 3 years and 2) iRobot will continue to lead the wave of home robot adoption.
20% Growth Through 2020. In addition to providing 2018 guidance that implies 20% year/year revenue growth, iRobot expects this type of growth to continue through 2020. Although investors view 20% growth as a deceleration over prior years, we view this forecast as in-line to our estimates and higher than most longer-term consensus models. Given Management’s history of providing conservative guidance, we think there is room for these numbers to go higher as we make our way throughout the year. Demand will be driven by increased Roomba and Braava sales from both domestic and international homes.
iRobot Leading Domestic Robot Wave. The company announced they will be rolling out a slate of new products in 2H18, which is expected to account for 25% of total sales. While the company did not give much detail on these new products, we anticipate they will enhance both the Roomba and Braava product portfolios. The company continues to heavily invest in R&D, and we believe the company will soon expand their core presence outside of vacuums and wet-floor products.
Link to model here.
Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: virtual reality, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and robotics. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.