Smart Speaker Macro-Model Update

Smart Speaker Macro-Model Update

We’re updating our estimates for stand-alone smart speakers and tuning our model based on more historical sales figures. Bottom line: this market remains in high growth mode. We estimate more than one-third of all US households will have a smart speaker, a device that did not exist just five years ago, by the end of 2019. Alexa maintains a lead in market share, but Google continues to gain share; we expect this trend to continue based on its utility, as determined by our most recent test of digital assistants.

  • We expect the US speaker market to grow at 38% y/y in 2019, compared to 41% y/y in 2018.
  • Our 2019 unit sales estimate is 72m, up from 52m in 2018.
  • We believe the current US smart speaker market share breakdown is as follows: Amazon Alexa – 58%, Google Home – 28%, Apple HomePod – 4%, Other – 10%.
  • Separately, we’re introducing China smart speaker manufacturers into our global model. China will account for 25m global units sold in 2019 and is currently growing at roughly 200% y/y (off a small base).
  • Our full model with estimates from 2014 to 2025 can be found here.

The following table shows our estimates (manufacturers don’t report sales numbers) of unit sales for the three major players and their market share within the US.

The following table shows a breakdown of unit sales and market share between China and the US and the rest of the world.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest or may invest: virtual reality, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and robotics. From time to time, we may write about companies that are in our portfolio. As managers of the portfolio, we may earn carried interest, management fees or other compensation from such portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making any investment decisions and provided solely for informational purposes. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections and the content on this site should not be relied upon. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.

Amazon, Apple, Artificial Intelligence, Google